Those calling for change endorse a system of proportional representation in which the proportion of seats won by a party would approximate the proportion of the popular vote it received. But while this may bring greater fairness, such a system – of itself – would almost never produce a majority government because it has been extremely rare over the past century for a winning party to receive 50% or more of the vote. Moreover, with the increasing polarization of political views, the balance of power in the resulting minority governments would often rest with an extreme party on the left or right of the spectrum.
Many have felt, myself included, that some form of ranked ballot system would be the best form of proportional representation if such a system is to be introduced. With this method, voters indicate their candidate of choice on the ballot and also rank the other candidates in order of preference. If no candidate has 50% of the vote then the candidate with the least support is dropped and that person’s second choice votes are allocated. If there is still not a candidate with 50% of the vote, the second choice votes of the lowest remaining candidate are allocated – and so on, until one candidate has more than 50% of the vote.
With such a system, the expectation is that candidates and parties will be motivated to be moderate in their approach, rather than extreme, in the hope of being the second choice of supporters of other candidates. While a logical assumption, the recent election of Doug Ford as leader of the Ontario Conservative Party was achieved through exactly the opposite tactic. There was a fringe candidate for leader, Tanya Granic Allen, who expressed anti-gay, anti-abortion, and anti-immigrant views, and was particularly critical of the sex-ed curriculum adopted in Ontario in 2015 and its coverage of such topics as same-sex marriage and gender identity. In a blatantly transparent move in the days leading up to the leadership vote, Doug Ford suddenly discovered that he too had grave concerns about the sex-ed curriculum. His tactic worked, he received 85% of the second choice votes of Tanya Allen supporters, and was elected leader even though he had less popular support than Christine Elliott.
The way in which Doug Ford was elected party leader demonstrates that a ranked ballot approach is no assurance that candidates will seek to moderate their positions. As political views increasingly polarize and fringe candidates and parties gain traction, any change in the voting system that seeks to be more representative may bring unintended consequences.
Drive Slowly: Electoral Reform is a Bumpy Road
Electoral reform is a popular subject these days. The federal government faces continuing criticism for abandoning its commitment to electoral reform after winning a majority government in 2015. Another referendum on electoral reform is underway in British Columbia. London, Ontario is having its first municipal election using a ranked ballot system and referendums are being held in Cambridge and in my municipality of Kingston on whether a ranked ballot system should be adopted for the election in 2022. Whatever its merits, such a change should be approached with caution, since the road to electoral reform may be paved with good intentions but also unforeseen and adverse consequences.